A Rapidly Changing Landscape


"Why are you even trying? It's impossible."

Remember when I said that the site logo/picture was more like how I see the market in my head? Yeah.

Impossible was the general consensus in a chatroom I hang out in with a few older tech guys like me that do Crypto. None of us could see what the market was doing. 

Years ago, we all sat in a channel called #TZ or Twilight Zone discussing import things like banning all the people that liked Less Than Jake.

Today exchanges are scrambling to deal with yesterday. We had Eth surge on an ICO. It was the increasingly more common Eth Token ICO, so of course they wanted Eth. And a lot of places fell apart. Freewallet couldn't handle the transaction load and split off a new cold wallet and freaked everyone out. You saw Polo freak me out a few days ago. It's very easy to think you are getting robbed.

The problem is when the coin everything else is traded against is about to lose its place, nobody knows what the fuck to do. What I did was check history. Specific events in the past where a currency with very high value goes through a swap with another one. The pattern looks like this:

1) Smart exchanges already have trading pairs ready for the new king

2) Smart traders immediately start investing in those new pairs once they stabilize

3) The exchanges that don't move fast enough risk going under

4) There's a day or two of swap where the overall market suffers because of the turmoil

5) There's an excellent week or two of recovery followed by a boom

The difference being this is all electronic so certain aspects of this process should go much quicker. The things I'm going to be looking for are Exchanges that aren't actively adding Eth pairings today if they haven't already. That's an exchange that probably won't last. And of course, I'll be looking for the swap to happen (Driven by the Russian Masterchain Rumors). We know it's possible. The folks forecasting for this are trying to use traditional market logic to call the ball. They do it a lot. They don't factor in that lots of things in Crypto happen 10 times faster.

So, if what has happened historically with swaps happens here, factoring in the areas Crypto is faster, You have a few patterns that make sense.

1) Bitcoin starts running away but Eth catches it like a predator hunter guy. Slowly mind you. But it will chase it down. Bitcoin can't run very fast by design (slow transaction times). If SegWit had happened, we wouldn't even be having this discussion.

2) Bitcoin just starts tumbling (my bet). And you see more of an Eth barely rising up to catch it as it falls.

The question is then what. My feeling is that they'll trade spots a few times but at some point Eth will just open up a lead and keep it. And we'll see Bitcoin very slowly lose positions over time as people figure out it is technologically inferior to literally all rivals. And that's not being mean. It's fact


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