Big Candy: Serious Long Term Forecast

(note: I can't remember who came up with the Big Candy nickname for a long overall market forecast, but I love it)

The market got very interesting once Eth suddenly wasn't Bitcoin's indentured servant anymore.

(note: I was cautioned against calling altcoins "Bitcoin's side bitches" again. Some folks are sensitive to the term "bitch". And I don't see a reason to make anyone feel uncomfortable when I'd love everyone to make money.)

Eth stands on its own now. And it isn't alone....

Yes, you see it get caught up in bizarre quantum entanglement with Bitcoin at times and refuse to do anything but be some set fraction of Bitcoin's USD value. But,

that's not being tied to bitcoin. That's what it looks like when coins are tied to USD. That's why you'll see the coins tied to USD do things at the same time and appear to be "linked".
They are. To USD. 

It's why Nem will stay somewhere between 19-23 cents value for WEEKS while its bitcoin value goes all over the place to keep it that USD value. Any coin that's a true long gets linked to USD. So I won't be talking about them much moving forward because their princess is in another Castle. You should already be holding them long. You'll even see this at times with coins that aren't directly linked with USD. Because they are trapped between linked USD coins. But if you look closely, you'll see they don't ride the USD wave like true USD linked coins. You'll see the fluctuations. Oh, and you'll notice they can drop 20 percent in under a minute making them create bag holders. Every shitty coin does this.

Those are the coins to look out for. A lot of them are "last hurrah" coins because there's nothing keeping them up but good feelings and market speculation. They aren't actually doing anything or fulfilling any purpose. So I still see the following happen:

1) Coins with terrible tech sinking.
2) Coins with great tech being adopted
3) Coins that are actually being used for something meaningful continuing to matter.
      a) Smart contracts, storage, super computing, asset management, or building other blockchains, or an entire gaming network, and in some cases entire meta exchanges inside the coin. They do something. Of course they'll be around when the coins that do nothing are competing with the other coins that do nothing.


that's not to say a coin that does nothing but act like a currency very well like a Digibyte or a Monero can't do well. They can. If you make your coins fast, and you make a great wallet, you can survive with no gimmick. And conversely, if you make your wallet an incredible hunk of shit like the Ethereum wallet or the ZCash wallet, you might do well anyway if there's an alternate wallet that isn't the horrible garbage of the official Ethereum or ZCash wallets. Or if your tech is so great the entire world embraces it and makes it our defined crypto future like Ethereum has.


So I'm not really expecting Litecoin to stay up. Or ETC (I have no idea why people buy Eth Classic. It's a classic deathtrap). Or Ripple for that matter, despite amazing marketing. That marketing isn't going to make people forget the terrible transaction times, exchanges crashing (Polo 4 times now) with less volume than Bitcoin can handle, and lack of usable tech. At some point karma will dictate reality for something that isn't as real as it pretends to be. There are simply too many coins with good tech to waste time on shit coins.

The market is growing very fast. Most of those old coins? You know how we pick on bitcoin when the transaction times slow down and it's taking hours to get paid with barely 2 billion trade volume? We do this thing where any rise in Bitcoin halts immediately when people can't get their fucking money. People are weird like that. They stop trusting something immediately when it's shitty like Bitcoin is when you try to actually pretend it could be something someday.


And this coin is supposed to replace USD? Which does an easy 5-7 TRILLION a day in trade? Yeah. Not happening. I'm sorry. Bitcoin is not going to be the currency of the future. Sorry to burst your bubble. Segwit couldn't fix the technical problems with bitcoin that make it fly apart like an over-revved engine at those levels. Segregated Witness might keep Bitcoin viable for another year or two. Maybe.

 A LOT of those coins are going to fall apart when 2 billion trade volume is "a bad day" for any top ten coin, and that's coming. Very soon the TECH is really going to matter. When the overall crypto market cap exceeds 200 billion, and the number one position coin (Eth likely) can easily handle 100 billion volume a day now with no modification, nobody is going to continue to suffer Bitcoin's bullshit. And most of the really old coins are straight Bitcoin ripoffs that have the same exact transaction flaws. Because most of them are straight up ripoffs of the Bitcoin code base.

If someone were to say, know exactly what coins were based on the Bitcoin codebase, they'd know what coins are guaranteed to fail. We only let one coin fail like Bitcoin:


And we won't put up with that forever. That's market reality.

And if you've noticed I'm saying everything while saying nothing, that's because the fans of a certain coin have no problems DDoSing my website when they don't like what I'm saying. So I'm wary of them. Just like their coin they are terrible for profits. But they are very stupid so, I know I'm ok with what I said.

So, who is the final successor to the throne? Who wins Game Of Coins?

I'm going to predict this now. And I'm basing it on a whole lot of market realities. And this is new. I have a very wild prediction. And I can't share that one. It involves Ethereum having to become a CPU coin and abandoning the THREAT (yes I said threat and bolded it) of Ethereum going "Proof of Stake". I don't see them ever doing that now. They can't. The miners of Ethereum make it viable. Without miners, Eth will fail. Bad. But I think some "people's coin" which will by definition be a cpu coin will fill the eventual power vacuum when Bitcoin blockchain tech is shown to be old shit. And every coin based on that tech dies. Every CPU coin that matters right now (top 50) is a great coin. At some point folks are going to simply see it. 

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