For Days Now, Watching The Trade Volume Has Been A Great Barometer


What fascinates me are the human being driven patterns of the market. Where enough people psychologically want something to be true so bad, they make it that way. Weird things like:

Eth wanting to be some exact percentage value of Bitcoin's USD value and tracking that percentage for weeks in perfect lockstep.

Right now, Bitcoin Cash wanting to be close to Eth's USD value per. Even though that means absolutely NOTHING. Per Unit value means NOTHING AT ALL in the real world when talking about trading and markets. But there's a "noob quotient" you need to factor in (again, human being driven patterns) because the majority of the people trading Crypto have no idea what a Market Cap even is. So they pay attention to stupid shit like unit value. Yeah. That's a factor.

But still.. the entire psychology around the idea that Bitcoin Cash is somehow an Eth equivalent to enough people, that it stays artificially inflated.

That stuff is fascinating. Because if you can figure that stuff out, you can make a lot of money.

Most of the predictions I make are based on what I think people are going to do. Not markets. I'm considering the crypto trader. And their feelings. How are a bunch of folks going to react to _________. How would I react?
How would my mom?
How many real world people are going to care?
Will this make CNN?

Not, is this real but, since it's Crypto, how many people can they convince it's real? Because whether something is real or not doesn't matter in Crypto. Just how many people you can get to believe you.

"Hey, I'm going to turn this water into wine"
says Tree (the comedian)
(audience scoffs audibly)
(Tree makes waving gestures over glass of water)
"Ok, it's wine now"
(audience laughs)
"Well, I only have to get twelve of you to believe me."

Know the distinction.

That being said, watch the Trade Volume. I don't know what fresh Christmas this is, but at about 10PM if you watch the trade volume, it has been "buy this! oh, and sell that!" for days now. It has simply lined up perfectly with what happens the next day, and keeps doing it. I don't know if this is a pleasant side effect of a beautiful growing stable market, or just luck. But I've been making money on coins I absolutely HATE doing this for almost a week now. Yeah. That's how scary it has been. I've been buying coins I absolutely dislike based on this model, and I'm still making money. 

NOW, TO BE CLEAR...

Against PERSISTENCE 
(sorry, weather term. Everything that has ever happened ever and ever)

Simply put, "normal" trade volume for one coin isn't normal for another. Take a coin like Nem. 99 percent of what it does is leading the entire world into the next generation of Asset Management with tokens and apps. It's already doing more transactions per second than VISA. Worldwide. Just, most of them are for asset tracking. Not currency trades. It's being used. That's why every once in a while it suddenly shoots up to 30 cents a piece. People remember it exists and is already being used for something crazy important. So, normal trade volume on Nem might be 10 million while it's carrying a crazy market cap because it's already a success.

However, you have coins like Ripple and IOTA that have no excuses for having zero trade volume yet high cap. They do... nothing at all that matters. They are simply manipulated. And... I don't care. I've found I can make money off even the manipulated coins just looking at the actual trade volume. And on the days they aren't faking it to make it, and they actually have true trade volume, by all means buy like crazy like I do. : )

I've made great money on Ripple the two days a week it had true volume. It doesn't seem to always be the guy behind the curtain holding 90 percent calling all the shots. Again, watching the trade volume bore this out.

Enjoy this one. A lot of these I keep to myself because it's like, time travel paradox level if you tell too many people. I've watched a pattern I discovered melt before because I told too many people. 

But this one isn't like that. Or, hasn't been. And I don't think it can be abused. It's just at the moment, you can use the actual amount people are actually using something as a measure of how much it matters. Things are... that um, unmanipulated? at the moment.

Love you.

S


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